The End of Nuclear Industry?

The European nuclear industry, which - through its 812 billion kWh of output - accounted for 36% of the Continent's energy supply in 1997, still expresses confidence that the anti-nuclear tide will subside. Nuclear industry representatives claim that Europe needs "clean" nu­clear power to meet E.U. greenhouse gas reduction targets, and that the economic costs of reactor closures are likely to sour public opin­ion on nuclear phase out plans. The French nuclear industry also has high hopes for the new standardized European pressurized-water re­actor or EPR-design. The French hope that the new EPR may help nuclear power compete economically with new gas- and coal-fired plants and lead to a revival of nuclear plant development.

But the industry also faces major problems beyond the relative cost of nuclear power, including a string of public relations gaffes and an aging managerial class that has depended too much on cozy relation­ships with governments and regulators.

In the end, it turned out the European nuclear industry had been routinely ignoring strict standards on train radiation levels for years because - claim industry representatives - they pose no real health danger, and following the rules to the letter is virtually impossi­ble.

Looming above the usual fights over German nuclear safety and en­vironmental issues, however, is the feeling that all European electrici­ty sectors will be put through major changes by E. U.-mandated mar­ket liberalization that was scheduled to begin in February. A report by Chicago-based Andersen Consulting issued in November predicts that over the next two decades, the European market will come to favour gas-fired local generation over large, remote base-load plants - nuclear or otherwise.

Unit X

1. Fossil Fuels

Solid Fuels

In this field, technical improvements in terms of thermal efficiency play a vital role in fostering market penetration of new systems. In the solid fuel sector much attention has been paid to the so-called "clean coal technologies". This is due to a recognition of the continuing importance of this fuel, especially in developing countries, but cou­pled with the need to improve the environmental and thermal perfor­mance of the combustion process.

Most large scale conventional power plants have net thermal effi­ciencies in the order of 38% for hard coal and 35% for brown coal. New systems are being developed which are aimed at increasing this,

over the medium-term, to at least 50%. This will result in a reduction of 0.21 kg of CO2per kWh generated per hard coal, and 0.34 kg/kWh generated for brown coal. In the EU countries alone, this equates to a CO2 reduction of 180 million tons per year; in line with targets set in the context of the climate change debate. This increased efficiency leads to lower fuel costs per unit of output, thought to equate to a reduction of some 2.5 EU/MWh in generating costs. For a 1 Gwe plant operat­ing for 7,000 hours a year, this means a theoretical annual cost cutting potential of about ECU 18 million for consumers.

Oil and Gas

The key priorities in this sector are to improve the efficiency of explo­ration and production of hydrocarbons and to reduce the environmental impact of the same. Some of the most important new technologies that have contributed to the objectives are related to: new drilling and com­pletion techniques, new seismic methods such as multi-component and multi-dimension seismic, offshore production structures and facilities. New techniques for deep water storage; and new technologies for natu­ral gas exploration and production. Demonstration and market deploy­ment of such technology will allow not only a better exploitation of Eu­ropean indigenous resources but also an increased competitiveness of European service and supply companies.